Index Insurance, Probabilistic Climate Forecasts, and Production
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems.
The development of ensemble-based 'probabilistic' climate forecasts is often seen as a promising avenue for climate scientists. Ensemble-based methods allow scientists to produce more informative, nuanced forecasts of climate variables by reflecting uncertainty from various sources, such as similarity to observation and model uncertainty. However, these developments present challenges as well a...
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The modern era of seasonal climate forecasts began in the late 1980s with the first successful retrospective predictions of the large 1982–83 El Niño/Southern Oscillation event using a dynamical model (Cane et al., 1986). Today, seasonal predictions are issued routinely at many national and international centers including IRI, based on both dynamical and statistical models (see Goddard et al., ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Risk and Insurance
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0022-4367
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2011.01422.x